Circle C Ranch holds two records at once. As of late September 2026, ZIP 78739 was rated the only "Hot" ZIP code in the Austin metro, with 1.3 sellers for every buyer and 1.85 months of resale inventory. In an MLS snapshot pulled in mid-August 2026, 69% of the homes still for sale in the same ZIP had already cut their asking price, with an average reduction of 5.7%.

Both numbers point the same way. Circle C has very few homes for sale, and it can't easily get more. That makes buyers act fast on homes priced to the market. Homes listed above it sit, then come down. If you're shopping here this fall, your room to negotiate is in that second group, and the reasons it exists will hold for years.

Two markets under one ZIP code

Look at how 78739 listings actually ended up. These figures cover single-family closed sales from August 2025 through July 2026, plus active listings as of August 12, 2026.

The median sale over that window was $800,000. The middle half of sales ran from $715,000 to $965,000, the typical home sold had about 2,945 square feet, and the median year built was 2003. That's an established neighborhood with mostly similar homes, so buyers can compare closely. A home priced $40,000 above its neighbors stands out right away.

Other readings agree on how fast things move. A separate analysis of August 2026 data counted 44 active listings against about 27 sales a month in 78739. That works out to 1.6 months of inventory, while the metro averaged 4.7. Homes went under contract in 11 cumulative days at 96.3% of their original asking price. A third report, covering September 27, 2025 through September 26, 2026, put the median at $788,000 with 14 median days on market and 23% of sales above list. Each report drew its boundaries and time window a little differently, so the medians don't line up exactly. They all describe a market where homes priced right sell in about two weeks.

The 69% figure covers a different group of homes. It counts what was still for sale on one day in August. Homes that sell in a week rarely show up in a count like that. Overpriced homes stay on the market long enough to be counted.

Why the metro's softness doesn't reach Dahlgreen Avenue

The wider Austin market is going the other way. In August 2026 the metro median sale price was $412,000, down 6.4% from a year earlier, and closed sales fell 7.3%. Inventory sat at 5.1 months. Travis County's median was $489,000, also down 6.4%. Across the full MLS in late September, sellers outnumbered buyers 2.9 to 1. One big reason for the softness elsewhere is builder financing incentives that individual sellers can't match.

That pressure mostly passes Circle C by, because almost no new homes are being built nearby to compete with resales. A recent local market analysis from Shipman Partners said this about the established southwest Austin neighborhoods at the top of its rankings. Our research turned up no 2026 single-family community actively building or selling inside or right next to Circle C. Several rules and land protections explain why:

• The aquifer. City staff place the undeveloped land next to Circle C over the Edwards Aquifer Recharge Zone, in the Slaughter Creek and Barton Springs Zone watershed. There, the Save Our Springs rules allow 15% impervious cover.
• Protected land on the edge. The City's Water Quality Protection Lands program protects recharge-zone and contributing-zone land by buying it or placing easements on it. Its Slaughter Creek unit includes a 2,300-foot fuel-break corridor that borders Circle C.
• A 2002 agreement. The Circle C development agreement between the City and Stratus Properties limited the last big nearby parcel, Tract 110, to offices, about 10,000 square feet of retail, and limited housing. The Save Our Springs Alliance says the office-only use was meant to limit how intensely the land over the recharge zone was developed and to help pay for conservation purchases. The agreement expires in 2032.

The 1.3-to-1 ratio comes out of those rules. No builder can offer an incentive on a house that can't be built.

Tract 110 adds homes, though not the kind that compete with resales

The biggest supply news in years came on September 24, 2026. That day, Austin City Council approved a revised plan for the roughly 67-acre Tract 110 site at 11010 1/2 S. MoPac, between the highway and Dahlgreen Avenue. The plan allows up to 1,000 apartments, 100 of them affordable. The office space that was allowed before is gone, and about 10,000 square feet of commercial space remains. Only 16 acres can be impervious cover. The requirement to extend South Bay Lane was dropped.

Council member Paige Ellis, who represents the area, described the tradeoff this way:

"I don't think there is a magic wand that helps us get the exact perfect thing where everybody is really excited about it. But I think given the tight constraints of this area and the general need for more housing, and affordable housing, in Southwest Austin, that this is a workable plan."

Many neighbors, including the Protect Circle C Coalition, opposed the changes. Community Impact reported that their main concerns were traffic on Dahlgreen Avenue and dropping the road connection. A traffic impact analysis will be required once site plans are filed. If it calls for a new signal on Dahlgreen, the developer has to pay for it. The developer may also have to provide land for a shared-use path.

For a buyer comparing resale homes, two facts matter more than the unit count. First, the approved project is apartments, so it adds rentals, not houses competing with a 2003-built four-bedroom. Second, nobody knows when it will be built. Stratus stockholders approved a full liquidation plan on June 1, 2026. The company then declared a first $5-per-share distribution, payable July 20. Stratus expects to sell its assets within about 24 months of approval. Its low-end estimate assumes 36 months. In a March 2026 release, Stratus listed Circle C Tracts 102 and 110 among its properties for sale or under contract, and it didn't name a buyer. Whoever ends up building on Tract 110 still has to file site plans and complete the traffic study first.

So the supply limits that keep resale inventory tight will likely last through the time you'd own a home bought this fall.

Where a buyer actually has room

If waiting for more homes won't help, the leverage is in the listings themselves. The 11% of homes that took more than 90 days and the 69% of active listings with a cut are the same pattern. Some sellers set prices for a market that doesn't exist here, then adjust. In practice:

1. Price against the street. With a median of $293 per square foot and most homes built around the same time, close comparables are easy to find. A listing far above them is a candidate for negotiation, even in a tight ZIP.
2. Read days on market as information. A Circle C home past roughly three weeks has already missed the window most local sales close in. Think about why before you offer.
3. Look at price history first. A home that already took one 5% cut may have more room. A fresh listing priced at the market will probably get several looks in its first week.
4. Be ready for well-priced homes. Nearly half of sales went under contract within 14 days. Have your financing and inspection plans lined up before you tour.

FAQ

Is Circle C Ranch a seller's market right now?

For homes priced at the market, yes. August and September 2026 readings put 78739 at roughly 1.6 to 2.2 months of supply. The metro had 5.1 months in August. Overpriced listings have behaved more like the softer metro market.

Will Tract 110 bring prices down?

The approved plan is for apartments, and its timing depends on Stratus selling the land and a new owner getting through site-plan review. Neither has happened.

What about MoPac South?

The project website lists express lanes as the "Reasonable Build Alternative" and says the environmental assessment is being finalized for submission. The project is still in environmental review. The draft environmental assessment came out on February 13, 2026.

If you're weighing a Circle C listing that has been sitting or just took a cut, Easley Group can pull its comparables, its price history, and where it fits in the ZIP's two-speed market before you make an offer. Let's Connect.

This article is general information, not legal, tax or financial advice. Consult a qualified professional about your situation.